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Roatan and Bay Islands Discussion List Archive
| Posted On: | 31-Aug-2005 |
| From: | dkevans [dkevans.....edu] |
| Subject: | [roatan] Re: [The future of life on Roatan Island] Reply 1 |
Received the elow comments from Derek Parent and thought it worth sending to both list. Derek's point is well taken in that we have had extreme hurricanes from ancient times. I guess my point was not that we should look at biofuels to save us from hurricanes, but that it took a hurricane of Katrina's magnatude to make it clear (at least to me) that we need to think about our dependence upon petroleum-based fuels. Perhaps I just did not make myself very clear. All the best...dke On 8/31/2005 8:15 PM, DP wrote: >Thanks, David, for your interesting essay! Always a pleasure to read your >material. I continue to read every post to this list, but am so busy that I >have very little time to contribute. > >Just a historical note on hurricane cycles: > >We've seen cycles of Cat 3~4 and the occassional Cat 5 hurricanes going back >to 1969 when the Saffir-Simpson system was developed. Even before 1969 >extremely deadly hurricanes were well recorded, from for example, the 1900 >Galveston Cat 4 hurricane that killed 13,000 people, and caused one of the >largest storm surges ever recorded in the Atlantic (a Gulf-side15-foot >surge). > >Atlantic Gulf hurricane of 1919 was a devastating Cat 4; the Great Miami >hurricane of 1926 was an absolutely devastating Cat 5; the 1928 San Filipe >hurricane was a Cat 4; etc...etc... > >Even before 1900, many, many what would be classified as Cat 4 and 5 >hurricanes had struck the Atlantic region recorded in the 16th, 17th and >18th Centuries... > >The human induced aspects of Global Warming: > >There is very little doubt among the GCM scientific crowd that chaos in >theories reigns. Not one single GCM can separate out human-induced climate >changes from natural geo-climatic variations. In fact, just when we think >that human driven forcings differentiate themselves out from natural climate >phenomena, natural cycles are teased-out of the mix, and graph far overpower >so-called human contributions to said...i.e. the sumtotal of human-liberated >hydrocarbons as global warming gases correlated decadally do not correlate >to increasing frequency of atlantic hurricanes since the time of the >industrial revolution...in some cases they run negatively correlated! > >Perhaps in a Century or so human-liberated hydrocarbons will exceed the >Earth's natural cycles of warming/cooling. But I expect that we will simply >run out of petroleum in about 70~80 years, and alternative non-internal >combusting engines and building/structure climate control systems will rule >(hydrogen fuel cells, or some other of the several parallel technologies >being developed now). > >As an end note: There is no doubt that humans are introducing fantastic >quantities of exotic toxins into our air and water (commons); no doubt that >humans are fishing out every ocean on Earth; no doubt that humans are >altering the geographic terrain and irreversibly destroying finite >ecosystems like prairies, rain forest, savannas; but at the scale global >climate influence, we are still hunting for some evidence that humans are >responsible for so-called catestrophic weather events. Now, at the >micro-climatic scale there is evidence that indicates that clear-cutting and >desertification can change the climate over those areas desertified...but >again, at the *local scale* > >The jurry is out as to why the Earth's reef systems are dying; there is some >strong correlation to warming seas (Human-induced warming? No evidence >exists in 2005 to prove this correct); other correlations to human >oversuse/abuse through cyanide fishing and diving and anchor damage (perhaps >a large contributing factor, along with natural cyclical sea warming/cooling >events *cyclical warming and cooling at the geological time scale*). > >David, if you wish to forward this to the list, you have my permission... > > > > -- --------------------~--> Get fast access to your favorite Yahoo! Groups. Make Yahoo! your home page /dpRU5A/wUILAA/yQLSAA/maOolB/TM --~-> http://www.roatanet.com To visit your group on the web, go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/roatan/ roatan- : | |
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